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Fed Minutes : A Fed Divided Reaches Comprise

October 14, 2011 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

Fed Minutes

Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its 2-day meeting September 20-21, 2011.

The release shows a divided Fed in disagreement about the current U.S. monetary policy. The group reached compromise for new economic stimulus, however, and maintained its commitment to accommodative interest rates.

Wall Street reacted tepidly to the minutes. Mortgage rates in Minneapolis worsened slightly post-release.

The Fed Minutes gets less press than the FOMC’s post-meeting press release, but it’s every bit as important. Because it details the conversations that take place among voting and non-voting Fed members at FOMC meetings, the Fed Minutes is an inside-look at the debates and discussion that lead to new monetary policy.

As examples, here are some of the topics covered at the September FOMC meeting :

  • On growth : Economic growth was slow, but “did not suggest a contraction”
  • On housing : The market continues to be “depressed by weak demand”
  • On rates : The Fed Funds Rate will remain low until mid-2013

Then, with Fed members divided on whether the central bank should add new stimulus, it reached a compromise instead, launching the $400 billion “Operation Twist” program. Operation Twist is meant to lower longer-term interest rates, including mortgage rates.

Since Operation Twist began, mortgage rates are higher by nearly 0.375%.

Also noteworthy within the Fed Minutes was concern for an economic slowdown and how the Federal Reserve may react. According to the record, a slowdown may prompt the Fed to introduce its third round of qualitative easing, or QE3. An out-sized stimulus plan would likely lead rates higher.

Nothing will happen until the Fed’s next meeting, however. Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co meet next November 1-2 for a 2-day meeting..

Filed Under: Federal Reserve Tagged With: Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve, FOMC, QE3

Retail Sales Expected To Rise; Mortgage Rates Should Rise, Too

October 13, 2011 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

Retail Sales 2008-2011

The American Consumer is alive and well, it seems.

Friday morning, the Census Bureau will release its Retail Sales figures for September. The report is expected to show an increase in gross receipts for the 15th straight month with analysts predicting a 0.6 percent increase from August.

The projected increase represents the largest jump in Retail Sales in six months and would likely lead mortgage rates higher for buyers in Minneapolis and   nationwide.

The connection between Retail Sales and mortgage rates is fairly straight-forward. Retail Sales are the majority component of “consumer spending” and consumer spending represents the majority of the U.S. economy — up to 70 percent, by some estimates.

And, as the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.

10 months ago, mortgage rates shot forward to start the year. This is because expectations were high for a strong economic rebound. Conforming and FHA rates crossed 5 percent at the time and were headed toward six.

By mid-April, though, it was clear that economic data was falling short of predictions. As a result, mortgage rates declined, kicking off the 2011 Refi Boom. Then, by August, on ongoing economic softness, mortgage rates in Minnesota fell further, making new all-time lows.

Expectations for a recovery have returned. Rates are now rising.

Last week’s strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy and investors have been voting with their dollars. Mortgage rates are now up 7 consecutive days and Friday’s Retail Sales report could cement the trend.

If you’re shopping mortgage rates today, there’s risk in “floating”. You may want to lock your rate before Friday’s Retail Sales report drives rates even higher.

The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates, The Economy Tagged With: Census Bureau, Consumer Spending, mortgage rates, Retail Sales

Quiz : What’s The First Thing You Should Do After A Home Purchase?

October 12, 2011 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

Change your locks when you buy a new homeDid you remember to handle the most basic safety precaution for your new home?

When people buy homes — in Minneapolis or wherever —  , there’s a tendency to think “Big Picture” on home improvements. Flooring, painting and furniture are common “just-moved-in” purchases, as are cable television and utilities packages.

The most important move-in purchase, though, may also be the least expensive — deadbolts for your doors.

Every home has at least one — and sometimes up to dozen — keyed points of entry. And until you change those locks, there’s no telling just how many people may have access to your home.

For example, your home’s prior owners may have shared house keys with any/all of the following people :

  • Real estate agents
  • Neighbors and friends
  • Parents, brothers and sisters
  • Home cleaning service
  • Dog walkers and pet sitters

Those keys will still gain entry into your home until you change the locks. This is why your first act homeowner should be to replace all your home’s keyed entries with new locks and/or deadbolts.

Locks and deadbolts come in a variety of designs and finises, with varying price points. A basic single-cylinder, keyed deadbolt costs less than $15, and a powerful digital-entry, keyless system sells for $200-plus. There are a bevy of models at prices in between, too.

Regardless of which lock system you choose, don’t procrastinate on installation. Ideally, your locks should be changed on the same day of purchase, as close to closing’s completion as possible.

Hardware stores carry most deadbolt varieties and many can be installed with just a screwdriver. For complicated installations, talk to a locksmith.

Filed Under: Around The Home Tagged With: Deadbolt, home purchase, Home Safety, Locksmith

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