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A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (August 9, 2011 Edition)

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Putting the FOMC statement in plain EnglishTuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The vote was 7-3 — the first time in 5 meetings that the nation’s Central Bank was non-unanimous and the first time since 1992 that the FOMC adjourned with as many as three dissenters.

In its press release, the FOMC had little good to say about the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in June:

  1. Growth has been “considerably slower” than expected
  2. Labor market conditions have deteriorated
  3. Household spendng has “flattened”

The Fed also noted that the housing sector remains depressed.

On the positive side, the Fed said that business investment in equipment and software continues to expand, and that energy costs have dropped and no longer contribute to inflationary pressures on the economy.

In fact, the Fed worries that inflation may be running too low for the country’s good.

To that end, the Federal Reserve has pledged to keep the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent “at least until mid-2013”. This is a departure from prior statements in which the Fed gave no such date.

Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC statement has been positive this afternoon. Mortgage rates in Minnesota are improving, but note that sentiment can shift quickly — especially in a market as uncertain as this one.

If today’s mortgage rates look good in your household budget, consider locking in a rate.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is September 20, 2011.

Mortgage Rates Drop After U.S. Credit Downgrade

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Mortgage rates are runningMortgage rates continue drifting downward, despite — or because of — a ratings downgrade on long-term U.S. government debt. Standard & Poors issued a single-notch downgrade after Friday’s market close, from AAA to AA+.

Of the roughly $9.4 billion in publicly-held U.S. debt, 72 percent is long-term (i.e. with duration of 2 years or longer).

U.S. short-term debt was not downgraded.

When an entity — government, business, or other — is cited for a credit downgrade, it means that the risk of lending money to that entity has increased. In theory, higher risk should lead to higher borrowing costs and higher consumer rates.

Except in today’s U.S. Treasury and mortgage bond markets, the opposite is occurring. U.S.-backed bonds are in demand, leading rates lower. It’s an unexpected response to the S&P downgrade.

There are 3 main reasons why mortgage rates aren’t rising.

First, Wall Street is “brushing off” S&P’s downgrade, citing the rating agency’s opinion as flawed. This is, in part, the result of a supposed “math error” in the S&P findings, as caught by the U.S. Treasury.

Second, global finance leaders have made public statements since the Friday downgrade re-asserting their faith in the U.S. government’s ability to repay its debts. This is helped stabilize bonds as well.

And, third, of the three major rating agencies, only Standard & Poor’s downgraded long-term U.S. debt. Competitors Moody’s and Fitch instead chose to re-affirm the top-status rating for U.S. government-issued debt after last week’s debt ceiling accord.

The likely cause for falling rates today is that the global economy is showing signs of a slowdown and the U.S. Treasury market remains the largest and most liquid bond market in the world. Ergo, they’re relatively safe — despite the credit rating of the nation backing them.

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