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Housing Starts Surge 9 Percent; Signal A Strong Fall Season

July 20, 2011 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

Single-family housing starts

Builders are busy once again.

According to the Census Bureau, Single-Family Housing Starts rose to 453,000 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in June — a 9 percent spike from the month prior and the highest reading in 3 seasons.

A “Housing Start” is defined as a home breaking ground on new construction.

June’s reading is largest one-month jump since June 2009. The reading surprised Wall Street despite that the Homebuilder Confidence survey may have foreshadowed the results.

Monday, the National Association of Homebuilders reported that builders are more confident about the future of the new home sales market, and forecast a large increase in sales over the next 6 months.

For buyers of new construction, the news is mixed. Rising confidence may mean that builders in St Paul are less willing to negotiate on upgrades and/or price, but rising construction levels add inventory to an already fragile market.

Adding to the nation’s home supply without a corresponding increase in buyer demand shifts negotiation leverage away from builders. 

The Census Bureau also reported on Building Permits.

In June, permits for single-family homes rose by 1,000 units nationwide on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This, too, bodes well for housing because 89 percent of homes with permits start construction within 60 days.

Momentum should carry forward into fall.

If you’re buying new construction in Minnesota , ask your real estate agent about local home supply, and how the market is trending. With mortgage rates low and the fall buying season approaching, you may find some of your best deals in the next few weeks.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Building Permits, Homebuilder Confidence, Housing Starts

Led By Expectations Of A Strong Fall Season, Homebuilder Confidence Bounces Back

July 19, 2011 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

Housing Market Index (Homebuilder Confidence)

Homebuilder confidence is bouncing back.

One month after an unceremonious dip highlighted by poor sales figures and dim prospects for the future, the National Association of Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index rebounded two points to 15 in July.

The monthly Housing Market Index is scored on a 1-100 scale. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions for homebuilders and the “new home” market. Readings below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not read higher than 50 in more than 5 years.

As a housing metric, the HMI is actually a composite of three separate surveys, self-reported by builders. The surveys ask about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume; and current buyer foot traffic levels.

In July, the responses read as follows : 

  • Current single-family sales : 15 (+2 from June)
  • Projected single-family sales : 22 (+7 from June)
  • Buyer foot traffic : 12 (Unchanged from June)

The most noteworthy reading is the rapid rise in Projected single-family home sales. Although builders aren’t experiencing more foot traffic, they think sales will spike between now and the New Year. 

That could spell bad news for St Paul home buyers.

When builders harbor higher expectations for the future, they’re less willing to make concessions for upgrades and/or price. Your likelihood of getting “a great deal” as a buyer diminishes.

That’s why it’s good that mortgage rates are still so low. Low mortgage rates help with home affordability and can offset slight jumps in sale price.

Mortgage rates remain just above their lowest levels of 2011, and of all-time.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: HMI, Housing Market Index, NAHB

There’s 3.7 Million Homes For Sale. Is Yours Standing Out From The Crowd?

July 18, 2011 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, there are more than 3.7 million homes for sale this month. If your home is among them, are you doing what it takes to stand apart from the crowd?

This 4-minute piece from NBC’s The Today Show pulls no punches. It’s titled “5 Mistakes Sellers Can’t Afford To Make” and it covers falling home prices, buyer mentality, and the need to be smart when faced with that first offer.

Some of the tips include:

  • Why you should list your home at a price within 5 percent of its “true value”
  • How to turn “low-ball” offers into legitimate ones
  • How to interview and select a real estate agent to sell your home

In addition, based on the truth that “people shop with their eyes” and then review home details, the video includes advice on using great photographs and making the most of an online listing.

It can be tough to find buyers in any market. But if you follow the tips outlined above, you can get more showings, and do more with them.

Filed Under: Around The Home Tagged With: Low-Ball Offers, Sell Your Home, The Today Show

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