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March Fed Minutes Show Inflation Risks And Rate Hikes On The Horizon

April 6, 2011 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

Fed Minutes March 2011The Federal Reserve released its March 15 meeting minutes Tuesday. The notes revealed a Federal Reserve split between optimism and caution for the U.S. economy.

The minutes’ official name is “Fed Minutes”. It’s a periodic publication, published 3 weeks after each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC meets 8 times annually, so the Fed Minutes is published 8 times annually, too.

The Fed Minutes is similar to the meeting minutes released after a condo board gets together, or after a meeting of the Board of Directors at a large corporation. The minutes give a detailed account of the important conversations and debates that occurred among the attendees.

At the Federal Reserve, those conversations are deep and, as such, the minutes are long; much longer than the more well-known, post-meeting press release anyway.

Whereas the press release is measured in paragraphs, the minutes are measured in pages.

Here is some of what the Fed discussed last month:

  • On inflation : Pressures are rising, but largely because of food costs and oil costs.
  • On housing : The market remains “depressed” with large inventory and weak demand.
  • On stimulus : The Fed will keep its $600 billion bond plan in place.

In addition, there was talk about ending the Federal Reserve’s accommodative monetary policy (i.e. the near-zero percent Fed Funds Rate). The FOMC’s voting members unanimously elected to leave the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent last month, but there was talk of raising the benchmark rate later this year.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates in St Paul are mostly unchanged since the Fed Minutes release.

Filed Under: Federal Reserve Tagged With: Fed Funds Rate, FOMC

Plan To Sell Within 5 Years? Consider An Adjustable-Rate Mortgage.

April 5, 2011 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

Comparing 5-year ARM to 30-year fixed

Which is better — a fixed-rate mortgage or an adjustable-rate mortgage? It’s a common question among home buyers and refinancing households in Minnesota.

The answer? It depends. 

Fixed-rate mortgages give the certainty of a known, unchanging principal + interest payment for the life of the loan. This can help you with budget-setting and financial planning. Some homeowners say fixed-rate loans they offer “peace of mind”.

Adjustable-rate mortgages do not.

After a pre-determined, introductory number of years, the initial interest rate on the note moves up or down, depending on the existing market conditions. It then adjust again every 12 months thereafter until the loan is paid in full.

ARMs can adjust higher or lower so they are necessarily unpredictable long-term. However, if you can be comfortable with uncertainty like that, you’re often rewarded with a very low initial interest rate — much lower than a comparable fixed rate loan, anyway.

Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey highlights this point.

The interest rate gap between fixed-rate mortgages and adjustable-rate mortgages is growing. It peaked 2 weeks ago, but remains huge at 1.16 percentage points.

On a $200,000 home loan, this FRM/ARM spread yields a monthly principal + interest payment difference of $136, or $8,160 over 5 years, the typical initial  rate period.

Savings like that can be compelling and may push you toward an adjustable rate loan.

You might also consider a 5-year ARM over a fixed-rate loan if any of these scenarios apply:

  1. The home you need costs more than you qualify for on a fixed rate
  2. Your projected earnings will out pace the projected increase in payment.
  3. The home you qualify for meets your needs now, but you know you will outgrow the home and the arm allows you to buy the home you plan to grow into. The net result is you save substantial money because of selling, moving and closing costs.
  4. You’re buying a new home with the intent to sell it within 5 years
  5. You’re currently financed with a 30-year fixed mortgage and have plans to sell the home within 5 years
  6. You’re interested in low payments, and are comfortable with longer-term payment uncertainty

Furthermore, homeowners whose existing ARMs are due for adjustment might want to refinance into a brand new ARM, if only to push the rate period farther into the future.

Before choosing ARM over fixed, though, make sure you speak with your loan officer about how adjustable rate mortgages work, and their near- and long-term risks. The payment savings may be tempting, but with an ARM, the payments are never permanent.

Filed Under: Mortgages Tagged With: ARM, ARM Mortgage, Budgeting, Fixed Rate Mortgage, Mortgages

Struggling Homeowner Government Program Overview

April 4, 2011 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

The Obama administration Making Homes Affordable program presentation can help distressed property owners understand the various programs available to them. MHA Programs Presentation

Filed Under: Struggling Homeowners

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