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Don’t Expect a Flood of Foreclosures

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The rising cost of just about everything from groceries to gas right now is leading to speculation that more people won’t be able to afford their mortgage payments. And that’s creating concern that a lot of foreclosures are on the horizon. While it’s true that foreclosure filings have gone up a bit compared to last year, experts say a flood of foreclosures isn’t coming.

Take it from Bill McBride of Calculated Risk. McBride is an expert on the housing market, and after closely following the data and market environment leading up to the crash, he was able to see the foreclosures coming in 2008. With the same careful eye and analysis, he has a different take on what’s ahead in the current market:

“There will not be a foreclosure crisis this time.”

Let’s look at why another flood is so unlikely.

There Aren’t Many Homeowners Who Are Seriously Behind on Their Mortgage Payments

One of the main reasons there were so many foreclosures during the last housing crash was because relaxed lending standards made it easy for people to take out mortgages, even if they couldn’t show that they’d be able to pay them back. At that time, lenders weren’t being very strict when assessing applicant credit scores, income levels, employment status, and debt-to-income ratio.

But now, lending standards have tightened, leading to more qualified buyers who can afford to make their mortgage payments. And data from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shows the number of homeowners who are seriously behind on their mortgage payments is declining (see graph below):

Molly Boese, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains just how few homeowners are struggling to make their mortgage payments:

“May’s overall mortgage delinquency rate matched the all-time low, and serious delinquencies followed suit. Furthermore, the rate of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a measure that ballooned in 2021, has receded to a level last observed in March 2020.”

Before there can be a significant rise in foreclosures, the number of people who can’t make their mortgage payments would need to rise. Since so many buyers are making their payments today, a wave of foreclosures isn’t likely.

Bottom Line

If you’re worried about a potential flood of foreclosures, know there’s nothing in the data today to suggest that’ll happen. In fact, qualified buyers are making their mortgage payments at a very high rate.

People Want Less Expensive Homes – And Builders Are Responding

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In today’s housing market, there are two main affordability challenges impacting buyers: mortgage rates that are higher than they’ve been the past couple of years, and rising home prices caused by low inventory. To overcome those challenges, many people are working with their agents to find less expensive homes. And with newly built homes making up a historically large percentage of the total available inventory today, that search often includes brand new homes.

People Are Spending Less on Newly Built Homes

The graph below uses the latest information from the Census to show, in June, more of the newly built home sales in this country were in lower price ranges than in 2022:Last year, only 58% of newly built home sales were less than $500,000. This June, that number was up to 65%. This means more people are buying less expensive newly built homes right now while affordability remains a challenge. 

Builders Are Offering Lower-Cost Options

Builders have picked up on this trend and are reacting accordingly. George Ratiu, Chief Economist at Keeping Current Matters, explains:

“Builders are also responding to this shift by bringing slightly smaller homes to market in an effort to meet lower price points . . .”

New data from the Census further confirms this pattern – it shows the median sales price of newly built homes has dipped down in recent months (see graph below):And as Mikaela Arroyo, Director of the New Home Trends Institute at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, says, the builders who are most responsive to this trend are forming pathways to homeownership:

 “. . . it is creating opportunities for people to be able to afford an entry-level home in an area. . . . if you get that size down, that automatically will make it a more affordable home. The [builders] that are decreasing [size] the most are probably the ones that try to build more of an affordable product.”

 How an Agent Can Help

Builders producing smaller, less expensive newly built homes give you more affordable options at a time when that’s really needed. If you’re hoping to buy a home soon, partner with a local real estate agent to find out what’s available in your area. An agent can help you look at newly built homes or ones under construction nearby.

Bottom Line

If you’re having a hard time finding a home you like in your budget, let’s connect. You need a real estate professional who knows all about the latest inventory in our area, including homes still under construction or just built. That way you have an expert on your side who can provide information on builder reputations, builder contracts and negotiations, and more to help you with the homebuying process.

Avoiding Becoming House Poor: A Path to Financial Security and Balance

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Avoiding Becoming House Poor: A Path to Financial Security and BalanceAs the housing market continues to evolve, it becomes increasingly crucial for aspiring homeowners to tread carefully and avoid falling into the trap of being house poor. The dream of owning a home should not come at the expense of financial stability and overall well-being. Here are some essential tips to steer clear of this precarious situation:

Setting a Sensible Budget:

Before even considering purchasing a house, it’s imperative to create a comprehensive budget that includes all your income, expenses, and financial goals. Be honest with yourself about what you can afford, considering not only the mortgage but also property taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance.

Prioritizing Emergency Savings:

Building a robust emergency fund should be a top priority. Life is unpredictable, and unexpected expenses can arise at any moment. Having a safety net of three to six months’ worth of living expenses can prevent you from becoming overwhelmed by financial burdens if an unforeseen situation occurs.

Saving for a Substantial Down Payment:

While it may be tempting to put down a smaller down payment to secure a house quickly, it’s wiser to save for a more substantial down payment. A larger down payment means borrowing less money and having lower mortgage payments, which can significantly reduce the risk of being house poor.

Consider All Costs:

Beyond the mortgage, homeownership involves additional expenses such as property taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance. Renters must consider renter’s insurance, utilities, and other costs.

Maintaining a Healthy Debt-to-Income Ratio:

Lenders often look at your debt-to-income ratio when considering your eligibility for a mortgage. Aim to keep this ratio as low as possible by paying off existing debts before taking on a mortgage.

Living Below Your Means:

It’s crucial to resist the temptation of purchasing the most expensive house you can qualify for. Instead, opt for a more affordable home that aligns with your budget and long-term financial objectives.

Anticipate Future Expenses:

Plan for the future and anticipate upcoming financial commitments such as career changes, education costs, and family planning. Being prepared for these events will ensure that your housing costs remain manageable even as your life circumstances change.

Shop Around for Mortgages or Rent:

If you’re in the market for a new home, don’t settle for the first mortgage offer you receive. Shop around and compare rates and terms from different lenders to secure the most favorable deal.

Avoid Making Big Financial Decisions:

Focus on stabilizing your housing situation first before taking on additional financial responsibilities.

Seek Professional Guidance:

If you’re uncertain about the process or worried about becoming house poor, consider seeking advice from a financial advisor or a reputable real estate professional..

Achieving the goal of homeownership or finding a suitable rental property should not come at the cost of your financial security and overall happiness. Remember, it’s not just about the house you live in; it’s about building a fulfilling life within your means.

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