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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 7, 2023

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 7, 2023Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on construction spending, public and private sector payroll growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Slips in June

U.S. construction spending slipped by 0.60 percent to 0.50 percent growth in June; analysts expected a month-to-month reading of  0.70 percent growth in construction spending. Year-over-year construction spending increased by 3.50 percent of which single-family residential construction accounted for 2.10 May’s reading for construction spending was revised from  0.90 percent growth to 1.10 percent growth from May to June.

Private residential construction rose by 0.30 percent in June. Spending on public residential construction decreased by -0.20 percent.

July Payroll Growth Shows Mixed Results

ADP reported 324,000 private sector jobs added in July. Analysts predicted only 175,000 private sector jobs added in July while June’s reading showed 455,000 jobs added. The federal government’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 187,000 jobs added in July.  Analysts expected 200,000 public and private sector jobs added in July while June’s reading showed 185,000 public and private sector jobs added.

The U.S. national unemployment rate dropped to 3.50 percent in July from June’s reading of 3.60 percent.

Mortgage Rates and Initial Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.90 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 14 basis points to 6.25 percent.  The Commerce Department reported that 227,000 jobless claims were filed last week,  which matched expectations and was higher than the 221,000 unemployment claims filed in the previous week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Will Buying A New Car Impact The Ability To Buy A New Home?

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Will Buying A New Car Impact The Ability To Buy A New Home?Making major life decisions often involves a delicate balancing act. Among the most significant choices individuals face are buying a new car and purchasing a new home. Both ventures represent milestones in one’s life, bringing excitement and anticipation. However, there is a complex interplay between these two financial endeavors that can significantly impact a person’s ability to achieve their dream of owning a new home.  Here are some factors to consider:

Debt-to-income ratio: When you apply for a home loan, your lender will consider your debt-to-income ratio (DTI) to determine whether you qualify for a mortgage. Your DTI is the amount of debt you have compared to your income. High DTI ratios are a red flag for lenders as it indicates a greater risk of defaulting on the mortgage. Therefore, potential homeowners should carefully assess the impact of adding a car loan to their financial portfolio. If you take on a new car loan, it will increase your debt load and could make it more difficult to qualify for a mortgage.

Down payment: A new car loan will require a down payment, which means you’ll have less money available for a down payment on a new home. Lenders generally prefer borrowers to have a sizeable down payment as it demonstrates financial responsibility and lowers the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, which affects the terms and interest rates of the mortgage. By prioritizing a home purchase over a new car, potential homeowners can better secure their financial position and increase their down payment amount.

Credit score: Taking out a new car loan can impact your credit score, which is an important factor in getting approved for a mortgage. If you have a high credit score, you’ll likely qualify for better interest rates and terms on a mortgage. However, if your credit score drops due to the new car loan, it could make it more difficult to qualify for a mortgage or result in a higher interest rate. Opting to purchase a new home before buying a new car allows borrowers to present a more robust credit profile, potentially resulting in a more favorable mortgage deal.

Overall, it’s important to consider how taking on a new car loan will impact your finances and your ability to buy a new home. It’s important to make sure that the cost of the new car fits within your budget. If you’re already stretching your finances to make car payments, it may be more difficult to save for a down payment on a new home or make mortgage payments. It’s always a good idea to speak with a financial advisor or mortgage lender to understand how your financial decisions will impact your ability to achieve your goals.

 

How Inflation Affects Mortgage Rates

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When you read about the housing market in the news, you might see something about a recent decision made by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). But how does this decision affect you and your plans to buy a home? Here’s what you need to know.

The Fed is trying hard to reduce inflation. And even though there’s been 12 straight months where inflation has cooled (see graph below), the most recent data shows it’s still higher than the Fed’s target of 2%:

While you may have been hoping the Fed would stop their hikes since they’re making progress on their goal of bringing down inflation, they don’t want to stop too soon, and risk inflation climbing back up as a result. Because of this, the Fed decided to increase the Federal Funds Rate again last week. As Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Fed, says:

“We remain committed to bringing inflation back to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.”

Greg McBride, Senior VP, and Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains how high inflation and a strong economy play into the Fed’s recent decision:

“Inflation remains stubbornly high. The economy has been remarkably resilient, the labor market is still robust, but that may be contributing to the stubbornly high inflation. So, Fed has to pump the brakes a bit more.”

Even though a Federal Fund Rate hike by the Fed doesn’t directly dictate what happens with mortgage rates, it does have an impact. As a recent article from Fortune says:

“The federal funds rate is an interest rate that banks charge other banks when they lend one another money . . . When inflation is running high, the Fed will increase rates to increase the cost of borrowing and slow down the economy. When it’s too low, they’ll lower rates to stimulate the economy and get things moving again.”

How All of This Affects You

In the simplest sense, when inflation is high, mortgage rates are also high. But, if the Fed succeeds in bringing down inflation, it could ultimately lead to lower mortgage rates, making it more affordable for you to buy a home.

This graph helps illustrate that point by showing that when inflation decreases, mortgage rates typically go down, too (see graph below):

As the data above shows, inflation (shown in the blue trend line) is slowly coming down and, based on historical trends, mortgage rates (shown in the green trend line) are likely to follow. McBride says this about the future of mortgage rates:

“With the backdrop of easing inflation pressures, we should see more consistent declines in mortgage rates as the year progresses, particularly if the economy and labor market slow noticeably.”

Bottom Line

What happens to mortgage rates depends on inflation. If inflation cools down, mortgage rates should go down too. Let’s talk so you can get expert advice on housing market changes and what they mean for you.

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