Minnesota Homes Today Local & National News

Home Affordability Reaches An All-Time High

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Home Opportunity Index (2005-2012)Home affordability moved higher last quarter, boosted by the lowest mortgage rates in history, a rise in median income, and slow-to-recover home prices throughout Minnesota and the country.

According to the National Association of Home Builders, the quarterly Home Opportunity Index read 75.9 in 2011’s fourth quarter. More than 3 in 4 homes sold between October-December 2011, in other words, were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,200.

Never in recorded history have U.S. homes been as affordable on a national level. Even on a regional and local level, affordability soared.

Affordability was highest in the Midwest; 7 of the 10 most affordable markets nationwide were in the nation’s heartland. 

The Top 5 most affordable U.S. cities in Q4 2011 were:

  1. Kokomo, IN (99.2% home affordability)
  2. Fairbanks, AK (97.5% home affordability)
  3. Cumberland, WV (96.9% home affordability)
  4. Lima, OH (96.0% home affordability)
  5. Rockford, IL (95.5% home affordability)

These are each considered “small markets”. The most affordable “major market” was the Youngstown, Ohio area, where 95.1% of homes sold were affordable to households earning the area’s local median income.

Not surprisingly, America’s “least affordable cities” were regionally-concentrated, too, with 7 of the 10 least affordable markets located in either California or Texas.

San Francisco (#3), Santa Ana (#4), and Los Angeles (#5) led for the Golden State but, for the 15th consecutive quarter, the New York metropolitan area took “Least Affordable Market” honors.

Just 29 percent of homes in and around New York City were affordable to households earning the area’s median income last quarter. It’s a large jump from the quarter prior during which 23 percent of homes were affordable.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available for download on the NAHB website. For Minnesota Real Estate Properties Today.

FHA To Raise Mortgage Insurance Premiums April 1, 2012

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FHA MIP Changes April 1 2012Beginning April 1, 2012, the FHA is once again raising mortgage insurance premiums (MIP) on its newly-insured borrowers throughout Minneapolis and the country.

It’s the FHA’s fourth such increase in the last two years.

Beginning April 1, 2012, upfront mortgage insurance premiums will be higher by 75 basis points, or 0.75%; and annual mortgage insurance premiums will be higher by 10 basis points per year, or 0.10%.

For borrowers with a loan size of $200,000, the new MIP will add $1,500 in one-time loan costs, plus an on-going, annual $200 increase in total mortgage insurance premiums paid.

All new FHA loans are subject to the increase — purchases and refinances.

The FHA is increasing its mortgage insurance premiums because, as an entity, the FHA is insuring a much larger percentage of the U.S. mortgage market than ever before. 

In 2006, the FHA insured 2 percent of all purchase-money mortgages. In 2011, that figure jumped to 18 percent. Unfortunately, as the FHA has insured more loans, it’s number of loans in default have climbed, too, forcing the FHA to boost its reserves.

Beginning April 1, 2012, the new FHA annual mortgage insurance premium schedule is as follows :

  • 15-year loan term, loan-to-value > 90% : 0.60% MIP per year
  • 15-year loan term, loan-to-value <= 90% : 0.35% MIP per year
  • 30-year loan term, loan-to-value > 95% : 1.25% MIP per year
  • 30-year loan term, loan-to-value <= 95% : 1.20% MIP per year

In order to calculate what your FHA annual mortgage insurance premium would be on a monthly basis, multiply your beginning loan size by your insurance premium in the chart above, then divide by 12.

In addition, for loans over $625,500, beginning June 1, 2012, there is an additional 25 basis point increase to annual MIP.

To avoid paying the new FHA mortgage insurance premiums, start your FHA mortgage application today. Existing FHA-insured homeowners will not be affected by the change.

Mortgage insurance premiums will not rise for loans already made.

Case-Shiller Index Shows Home Values Rising In Detroit

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Case-Shiller Index December 2011

Standard & Poors released its December 2011 Case-Shiller Index this week. The report is the most widely-cited, private-sector metric for the housing market. The index aims to measures change in home prices from month-to-month, and from year-to-year, in select U.S. cities and nationwide.

According to the report, between November and December 2011, home values fell within 18 of the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked markets; and through the 12 months leading up to December 2011, 19 of 20 tracked markets fell.

Only Detroit posted year-over-year gains, adding 0.50% since December 2010. 

Now, these statistics may look dire for the housing market, but it’s important to remember that the Case-Shiller Index — though widely-cited — remains a flawed statistic for everyday buyers and sellers in Minneapolis. Rather, the monthly Case-Shiller Index is more appropriately applied by policy-makers and economists to macro-economic issues than by you and me for buy-or-sell decisions..

There are three ways in which Case-Shiller is flawed — each tied to the way by which Case-Shiller Index is calculated.

The first reason why the Case-Shiller Index is flawed is that, although it’s purported to be a “national” housing index, the index tracks just 20 cities nationwide. The United States, by comparison, houses more than 3,100 municipalities. The Case-Shiller Index is not a representative sample of the U.S. housing market.

And then, even within its tracked markets, Case-Shiller fails provide sufficient details to be useful.

Within each Case-Shiller Index city, there are innumerable “local markets”, each with its own local economy. When home values are shown to be falling in Phoenix, for example, that doesn’t mean that values are falling everywhere in Phoenix — only in the aggregate. There are multiple neighborhoods in Phoenix in which home values improved in December.

The Case-Shiller Index doesn’t capture that. 

As another reason to ignore the Case-Shiller Index, note that the Case-Shiller Index only includes home sale data for single-family, detached homes — sales of condominiums and of multi-unit homes are specifically excluded. In some markets — Chicago and New York, for example — sales of these types can represent a large percentage of overall monthly sales.

Lastly, as a third reason to reduce the Case-Shiller Index’s significance — it’s “old”.

The Case-Shiller Index is published on a 60-day delay and includes sales contracts from even 60 days prior to that. In other words, the data used in this week’s Case-Shiller Index dates back to October 2011.

Data from 5 months ago is of little relevance to buyers in Minnesota today. Up-to-date and current information is what matters.

For actionable, real-time housing market data, therefore, look past the Case-Shiller Index. Look to your local real estate agent instead.

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