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Are Home Prices Headed Toward Bubble Territory?

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Are Home Prices Headed Toward Bubble Territory? | MyKCM

 

Talk of a housing bubble is beginning to crop up as home prices have appreciated at a rapid pace this year. This is understandable since the appreciation of residential real estate is well above historic annual averages. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), annual appreciation since 1991 has averaged 3.8%. Here are the latest 2020 appreciation numbers from three reliable sources:

It’s easy to jump to the conclusion that house appreciation is out of control in today’s market. However, we need to put these numbers into context first.

Inflation and the Comeback from the Housing Crash

Following the housing crash, home values depreciated dramatically from 2007-2011. Values are still recovering from that unusually long period of falling prices. We must also realize that normal inflation has had an impact.

Bill McBride, the founder of the well-respected Calculated Risk blog, recently summed it up this way:

“It has been over fourteen years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release today, the seasonally adjusted National Index, was reported as being 22.2% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms (adjusted for inflation), the National index is still about 2% below the bubble peak…As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $291,000 today adjusted for inflation.”

The COVID Impact on Home Prices

The pandemic caused many households to reconsider whether their current home still fulfills their lifestyle. Many homeowners now want larger yards that are both separate and private.

Their needs on the inside of the home have changed too. People now want home offices, gyms, and living rooms well-suited for video conferencing. Barbara Ballinger, a freelance writer and the author of several books on real estate, recently wrote:

“While homeowners continue to want their outdoor spaces that offer a safe retreat, that appeal has shifted into other parts of the home, coupling comfort with function. In other words, homeowners want amenities for work and leisure, and they plan to enjoy them long after the pandemic.”

At the same time, concerns about the pandemic have caused many homeowners to put their plans to sell on hold. Realtor.com just released their November Monthly Housing Market Trends Report. It explains:

“Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale decreased 39.2% over the past year in November…This amounted to 490,000 fewer homes for sale compared to November of last year.”

More people buying and fewer people selling has caused home prices to escalate. However, with a vaccine on the horizon, more homeowners will be putting their houses on the market. This will better balance supply with demand and slow down the rapid appreciation.

That’s why major organizations in the housing industry are calling for much more moderate home appreciation next year. Here are the most recent forecasts for 2021:

This Is Nothing Like 2006

Finally, let’s put to rest some of the concerns that today’s scenario is anything like what led up to the last housing crash. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains why this is nothing like 2006:

“Such a frenzy of activity, reminiscent of 2006, raises questions about a bubble and the potential for a painful crash. The answer: There’s no comparison. Back in 2006, dubious adjustable-rate mortgages taxed many buyers’ budgets. Some loans didn’t even require income documentation. Today, buyers are taking out 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fourteen years ago, there were 3.8 million homes listed for sale, and home builders were putting up about 2 million new units. Now, inventory is only about 1.5 million homes, and home builders are underproducing relative to historical averages.”

Bottom Line

Most aspects of life have been anything but normal in 2020. That includes buying and selling real estate. High demand coupled with restricted supply has caused home prices to appreciate above historic levels. With the end of the health crisis in sight, we will see price appreciation return to more normal levels next year.

An Honest Look at Unemployment Numbers

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An Honest Look at Unemployment Numbers | MyKCM

 

Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Jobs Report. It revealed that, though headed in the right direction, the nation’s job recovery has slowed. The consensus reaction is best exemplified by a quote from Glassdoor Senior Economist, Daniel Zhao:

“We saw positive job gains, but I think the sentiment is largely negative because we know that we’re heading into a dark winter.”

There’s no doubt that millions of households have been – and continue to be -devastated by the economic downturn caused by the pandemic.

We should, however, put the current situation into perspective. Where we currently stand is much better than where most experts thought we would be at this time. Jed Kolko, Chief Economist of Indeed, explained in his State of the Labor Market that, though the situation is not good, we’re doing better than original expectations:

“Though the labor market rebound is incomplete, it has nevertheless surpassed expectations. In May, after payrolls plunged and unemployment spiked, the Wall Street Journal panel of economic forecasters projected unemployment would be over 11% in December 2020 and not fall below 7% until the first half of 2022 — a milestone already passed in October.”

With the announcement that vaccines should be available soon, we’re not far from the most damaged segments of the economy gaining momentum again.

Jeff Sparshott of the Wall Street Journal recently wrote:

“Even with signs of a recent slowdown, the labor-market recovery since this spring has been stronger than most economists expected. Many now project widespread vaccine distribution will eventually help lift the economy further as businesses are allowed to reopen and consumers feel more comfortable traveling, going to the movies.”

Bottom Line

Though millions of Americans are still out of work, the situation was forecasted to be even direr than it is today. Once a vaccine becomes available, the economy should complete its comeback, and so should the labor market.

An Overview of Mortgage Forbearance: What Is This And What Should Homeowners Know?

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An Overview of Mortgage Forbearance: What Is This And What Should Homeowners Know?Current times are tough and there are a lot of homeowners who are having trouble making ends meet. Therefore, they are looking for ways to remain financially afloat as they assess their options. One option that people might have heard a lot about is called mortgage forbearance.

It is critical for everyone to understand what mortgage forbearance is and how this might be able to help them during these challenging times. Importantly, it is also important for people to know what mortgage forbearance is not.

What Does Mortgage Forbearance Do?

For those who are currently facing financial challenges, mortgage forbearance might be helpful. The goal of mortgage forbearance is to allow people to temporarily stop making payments toward their mortgage. This is particularly helpful when someone is looking for a new job or when families are struggling during a recession.

Depending on whether someone has a government loan or a private mortgage, their options for mortgage forbearance might be different. Therefore, it is critical for everyone to speak with their lender directly about mortgage forbearance before deciding this is the right option. Even if someone qualifies for mortgage forbearance, they still need to apply for it, as not everyone will be granted it. Otherwise, people risk becoming delinquent on their payments, which could lead to serious consequences.

Common Misconceptions About Mortgage Forbearance

It is also important for people to know what mortgage forbearance does not do. Even though mortgage forbearance will not hurt someone’s credit (as they will remain current on their loan), mortgage forbearance does not mean the mortgage is forgiven. It is possible that interest may accumulate on the loan when someone is not making payments, so this is critical to clarify. Or, it could take longer to pay off the loan. Finally, everyone who is applying for mortgage forbearance needs to understand how long this forbearance will last. Everyone has to make sure they know exactly when their monthly payments are going to resume.

Consider Using Mortgage Forbearance

Anyone who is having trouble keeping up with their mortgage payments should consider applying for mortgage forbearance. This can be a useful option for helping people stay in their homes without harming their credit scores or becoming delinquent on their loans.

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