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Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020

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Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020 | MyKCM

With the U.S. economy on everyone’s minds right now, questions about the country’s financial outlook continue to come up daily. The one that seems to keep rising to the top is: when will the economy begin to recover? While no one knows exactly how a rebound will play out, expert economists around the country are becoming more aligned on when the recovery will begin.

According to the latest Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, which polls more than 60 economists on a monthly basis, 85.3% believe a recovery will begin in the second half of 2020 (see graph below):Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020 | MyKCMThere seems to be a growing consensus among these experts that the second half of this year will be the start of a turnaround in this country.

Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill notes:

“We fully expect the economy could begin to pick up in late June and July with a strong recovery in the fourth quarter.” 

In addition, five of the major financial institutions are also forecasting positive GDP in the second half of the year. Today, four of the five expect a recovery to begin in the third quarter of 2020, and all five agree a recovery should start by the fourth quarter (see graph below):Economists Forecast Recovery to Begin in the Second Half of 2020 | MyKCM

Bottom Line

The vast majority of economists, analysts, and financial institutions are in unison, indicating an economic recovery should begin in the second half of 2020. Agreement among these leading experts is stronger than ever.

The Pros And Cons Of Remodeling During The COVID-19 Pandemic

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The Pros And Cons Of Remodeling During COVID-19 PandemicNearly everyone has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in some way. While many people are getting tired of being cooped up in their homes, the home improvement industry has actually been able to stay afloat. Furthermore, it is actually thriving. Because many people are trapped in their homes during the COVID-19 pandemic, many people are thinking about carrying out a home remodeling project. For those who are wondering about the prospects of such an undertaking, it is important to weigh the pros and cons.

The Pros Of Home Remodeling During The COVID-19 Pandemic

There are a few benefits that people should note about remodeling during this time. They include:

  • There is more time to plan out the project. With extra time, people can compare costs, take virtual tours of showrooms, and even check out some of the latest designs.
  • There are even some brick and mortar showrooms that are still open. While many people are nervous about venturing out during the COVID-19 pandemic, these showrooms are still maintaining proper social distancing measures to keep their staff and customers safe.
  • Finally, there are also a handful of discounts available to those who are remodeling during this time. Because they are eager for business, they are often wiling to slash the prices to help someone get their project done.

These are some of the biggest benefits for people to note; however, there are also a few drawbacks as well.

The Cons Of Home Remodeling During The COVID-19 Pandemic

Some of the disadvantages of trying to start a home remodeling project during this time include:

  • There might be a shortage of materials available to carry out the project. It might take time for companies to restock their inventory, delaying the start of the project.
  • While some items are cheaper, others are more expensive because the supply has dried up.
  • For those who might being a challenging financial situation during the pandemic, there is a risk of spending too much money as the project gets going.

For these reasons, it is important for everyone to carefully weigh the pros and cons of starting a home remodeling project during this time. While there are some attractive offers, everyone’s individual situation is different. People need to think about what is right for them.

Why This Summer Is the 2020 Real Estate Season

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Why This Summer Is the 2020 Real Estate Season | MyKCM

 

With stay-at-home orders starting to gradually lift throughout parts of the country, data indicates homebuyers are jumping back into the market. After many families put their plans on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic, what we once called the busy spring real estate season is shifting into the summer. In 2020, summer is the new spring for real estate.

Joel Kan, Economist at The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) notes:

“Applications for home purchases continue to recover from April’s sizable drop and have now increased for five consecutive weeks…Government purchase applications, which include FHA, VA, and USDA loans, are now 5 percent higher than a year ago, which is an encouraging turnaround after the weakness seen over the past two months.”

Additionally, according to Google Trends, which scores search terms online, searches for real estate increased from 68 points the week of March 15th to 92 points last week. As we can see, more potential homebuyers are looking for homes virtually.

What’s the Opportunity for Buyers?

Another reason buyers are coming back to the market, even with forced unemployment and stay-at-home orders, is historically low mortgage rates. Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac indicates:

“For the fourth consecutive week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been below 3.30 percent, giving potential buyers a good reason to continue shopping even amid the pandemic…As states reopen, we’re seeing purchase demand improve remarkably fast, now essentially flat relative to a year ago.”

With mortgage rates at such low levels and states gradually beginning to reopen, there’s more incentive than ever to buy a home this summer.

What’s the Opportunity for Sellers?

Finding a home to buy, however, is still a challenge, as this spring sellers removed many listings from the market. Though more people are now putting their houses up for sale this month as compared to last month, current inventory is still well below last year’s level.

According to last week’s Weekly Economic and Housing Market Update from realtor.com:

“Weekly Housing Inventory showed continued tightening. New Listings declined 28% compared with a year ago, as sellers grappled with uncertainty and hesitated bringing homes to market. Total Listings dropped 20% YoY, a faster rate than in prior weeks, leaving very few homes available for sale. As Time on Market was 15 days slower YoY, asking prices moved up 1.5% YoY.”

If you’re thinking of selling your house this summer, now may be your best opportunity. With so few homes on the market for buyers to purchase, this season may be the time for your house to stand out from the crowd. Trusted real estate professionals can help you list safely and effectively, keeping your family’s needs top of mind. Buyers are looking, and your house may be at the top of their list.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of selling, many buyers may be eager to find a home just like yours. Let’s connect today to make sure you can get your house in on the action this summer.

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