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Recession? Yes. Housing Crash? No.

April 13, 2020 by Bob Elliot Leave a Comment

With over 90% of Americans now under a shelter-in-place order, many experts are warning that the American economy is heading toward a recession, if it’s not in one already. What does that mean to the residential real estate market?

What is a recession?

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

COVID-19 hit the pause button on the American economy in the middle of March. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are all calling for a deep dive in the economy in the second quarter of this year. Though we may not yet be in a recession by the technical definition of the word today, most believe history will show we were in one from April to June.

Does that mean we’re headed for another housing crash?

Many fear a recession will mean a repeat of the housing crash that occurred during the Great Recession of 2006-2008. The past, however, shows us that most recessions do not adversely impact home values. Doug Brien, CEO of Mynd Property Management, explains:

“With the exception of two recessions, the Great Recession from 2007-2009, & the Gulf War recession from 1990-1991, no other recessions have impacted the U.S. housing market, according to Freddie Mac Home Price Index data collected from 1975 to 2018.”

CoreLogic, in a second study of the last five recessions, found the same. Here’s a graph of their findings:

What are the experts saying this time?

This is what three economic leaders are saying about the housing connection to this recession:

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist with NAHB

“The housing sector enters this recession underbuilt rather than overbuilt…That means as the economy rebounds – which it will at some stage – housing is set to help lead the way out.”

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist with Meyers Research

“Last time housing led the recession…This time it’s poised to bring us out. This is the Great Recession for leisure, hospitality, trade and transportation in that this recession will feel as bad as the Great Recession did to housing.”

John Burns, founder of John Burns Consulting, also revealed that his firm’s research concluded that recessions caused by a pandemic usually do not significantly impact home values:

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices).”

Bottom Line

If we’re not in a recession yet, we’re about to be in one. This time, however, housing will be the sector that leads the economic recovery.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 13th, 2020

April 13, 2020 by Bob Elliot

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 13th, 2020 Last week’s economic reports were limited due to closures connected with coronavirus regulations. The Federal Reserve did not issue minutes for the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting as the meeting was canceled.

Inflation readings were released; weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were released along with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

Consumer Price Index Falls In March

The Consumer Price Index dropped by -0.40 percent in March; this was its biggest decline in five years. Lower inflation was largely due to falling fuel prices.

The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, fell by -0.10 percent in March as compared to 0.10 percent growth in February.

The year-over-year inflation rate fell to 1.50 percent growth as compared to February’s year-over-year inflation rate of 2.30 percent.

Products including toilet tissue and disinfectant supplies have disappeared from many store shelves; analysts said that manufacturers of household staples use a steady approach to production and were not prepared or able to meet skyrocketing demand caused by COVID-19.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Little Changed

Freddie Mac reported no change in 30-year fixed mortgage rates that averaged 3.33 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was five basis points lower at 2.77 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were unchanged at 3.40 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points averaged 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims grew by 6.60 million claims last week; this was just shy of the previous week’s reading of 6.90 million claims filed. Before the COVID-19 outbreak, new jobless claims were typically reported in the mid-200,000 range.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflected consumer concerns about the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. April’s index reading was 71.0 as compared to the March reading of 89.1.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the NAHB Housing Market Index, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Retail sales data will be released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Creative Ways To Keep Your Family Sane During The COVID-19 Crisis

April 10, 2020 by Bob Elliot

Creative Ways To Keep Your Family Sane During The COVID-19 Crisis It can be a tremendous challenge to suddenly be stuck at home during the COVID-19 crisis. For those who are in an area of the country where there is a “shelter in place” order, this can feel very much like house arrest. If there are children stuck at home as well, this could be enough to make the entire family go stir crazy.

It can be hard to come up with ways to have fun when there is a lot of fear and anxiety in the air; however, here are a few great ways that families can have fun, grow closer, and bond during a challenging time.

Take A Virtual Tour Of A Museum

There are a handful of museums and aquariums around the country that are offering people the opportunity to take a virtual tour of their exhibits. These museums and aquariums are feeling the sting of the pandemic as well. They have gone out of their way to allow people to take a look at the numerous educational exhibits they have to offer over the internet. This can be a great way for a family to take a trip to somewhere exciting, take a look at some awesome exhibits, and learn about something new.

Make Videos Together

One of the most popular apps today is called TikTok. This is a social media platform where people make creative, funny videos, edit them, and share them with their followers all in one place! These videos are usually only a few seconds long and are layered with music. Think about funny poses, creative dance routines, and more!

Build A Puzzle Together

Sometimes, the greatest joys are in the simplest pleasures. There are countless puzzles out there and many of them have thousands of pieces. They will keep the entire family busy for days to come. Then, once the puzzle is done, it can be glued together and framed. This can serve as a tribute to the time when the family had to band together during a difficult time.

Get Creative

These are a few creative ideas that families can put to use during the pandemic. They will bring the family together through bonding experiences that will last forever.