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Economic readings released last week included Case-Shiller and FHFA Home Price Indices and reports on new and pending home sales. The week wrapped up with a report on consumer sentiment and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.
Case-Shiller, FHFA Report Faster Home Price Growth
Home prices rose by 3.80 percent year-over-year in December according to Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index rose by 2.90 percent year-over-year in December as compared to November’s reading of a 3.50 percent gain over-over-year; Case-Shiller reported 0.40 percent growth in home prices from month-to-month.
The 20-City Home Price Index reported no change in the top three cities for year-over-year home price growth. Phoenix, Arizona reported 6.50 percent home price growth in December followed by Charlotte, North Carolina’s reading of 5.30 percent home price growth. Tampa, Florida reported 5.20 percent year-over-year home price growth.
The Federal HousingFinance Agency reported its 34th consecutive quarter of home price growth in December. Home prices rose by 5.10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and were 0.60 percent higher month-to-month.
2019 saw home buyers leave pricey coastal metro areas in favor of less expensive markets in mountain states and in the South. Home prices in these areas rose as demand increased. Overall, real estate pros reported lingering shortages of homes for sale in many areas, but low mortgage rates prompted would-be buyers to enter the market. Increased demand for homes further boosted home prices in many areas.
Mortgage Rates Fall as New Jobless Claims Rise
Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped four basis points to 3.45 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was also four basis points lower at 2.95 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.20 percent and were five basis points lower.
Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.80 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent.
First-time jobless claims rose last week; 219,000 new claims were filed and exceeded expectations of 214,000 claims and the prior week’s reading of 211,000 first-time claims filed.
New and Pending Home Sales Increase in January
764,000 new homes were sold in January on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis according to the Commerce Department. Analysts expected 722,000 new home sales based on December’s reading of 708,000 new homes sold. Low mortgage rates boosted sales as buyers turned to new home developments to take advantage of rock-bottom mortgage rates.
Pending home sales rose 5.20 percent in January as compared to a dip of -4.30 percent in December according to the National Association of Realtors®. Pending home sales were 8.70 percent higher in the South and 7.10 percent higher in the Midwest. Pending sales rose by 1.20 percent in the Northeast and fell 1.10 percent in the West.
The University of Michigan reported slight growth in consumer sentiment in February with an index reading of 101.0 as compared to January’s reading of 100.9. Analysts expected no change from January’s reading.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending and labor sector reports on public and private-sector job growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.
To understand what to do with a windfall or extra disposable income when it comes to paying down a mortgage or investing the money, we need to discuss and understand the concept of opportunity cost.
What Is Opportunity Cost?
The concept of opportunity cost takes into consideration the total financial impact of the use of funds when applied in different ways, to be able to compare the effectiveness of how it is best to use them. The opportunity cost considers the risks involved, the potential reward, as well as the tax implications of the choices.
Risk Versus Reward Evaluation
All investments have risks. When comparing the potential earnings from an investment against the savings of mortgage interest, only the investment side has any downside risk. If you pay down the mortgage, there is a 100% certainty that the loan will reduce and the interest paid will go down. You can calculate the saving on the interest and know the exact amount.
If you invest those same funds, there is always a risk that the investment money can be lost or the investment returns are lower than expected. Moneywise did a comparison of using money to lower a mortgage versus investing in the S&P 500 stock market index over 43 years from 1971 to 2013. For 26 of those 43 years (60% of the time), paying down the mortgage was a better financial move.
Tax Implications
The tax implications involve the impact of the mortgage interest deduction, and its effect on reducing federal income taxes, and the cost of paying capital gains tax on investment profits.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the possibility for many people of benefiting from an itemized mortgage interest deduction because the standard deduction increased. For comparative purposes, most Americans pay capital gains at the current rate of 15%.
Take the tax savings from the mortgage deduction, if you can use it, and compare this to the investment income, less the applicable capital gains taxes. Ask your tax accountant to do the calculation for you if you cannot do this yourself.
Summary
For some, paying down a mortgage is more beneficial than investing. Paying down a mortgage certainly has less risk. Be sure to consider paying down high-interest credit card bills first. That is always a wise idea because the interest rate charged on credit cards is so high.
Every person’s financial circumstances are somewhat different so there is no standard answer when comparing paying down a mortgage to investing the same amount of money. Each person needs to do this calculation of the opportunity costs, to be able to apply their extra funds in ways that are most beneficial for them.
If you are in the market for a new home or interested in refinancing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted home mortgage professional to discuss current financing options.